Since the end of World War II, few presidents have had successful second terms, a problem frequently referred to as the Second Term Blues. Why is this? Will President Obama be an exception?
Historically, the score reads like this:
There have been twelve presidents since President Franklin D Roosevelt died near the end of World War II.
The first, Harry Truman, had been Roosevelt's vice president. Despite predictions of defeat, he was re-elected to a second term, but due to concerns over the Korean war, his popularity fell to 25 percent in the polls by the end of his second term. Historians have since rated him more favorably, but he left a deeply unpopular president.
Second, we have Dwight Eisenhower. He served two terms and remained well liked throughout his presidency, although he encountered significant health problems. His continued popularity may have been due to the strong memories many had of Eisenhower as a World War II general. He avoided a real case of "Second Term Blues".
Sadly, we will never know whether John F. Kennedy would have had good second term. He was an advocate for a number of principles that would have been supported by modern conservatives, including lower taxes and a strong foreign policy (the Cuban missile crisis). However, it is possible to predict that a second term would have involved a drop in popularity. First, his health had always been very bad despite a youthful appearance, and it could have diminished his ability to govern. Second, we now know that he had a downfall in his personal life - marital infidelity - that could have been revealed by the press at any time, although such things were often hushed up.
Fourth to step to the plate is Lyndon B. Johnson. He started out with the sympathy of a nation behind him, having taken the reigns after the Kennedy tragedy. He successfully ran for re-election a year later, but his second term was fraught with difficulty including the increasing unpopularity of the war in Vietnam. He was eligible to run for a "third" term under the Constitution, because he had taken over at the end of Kennedy's first, but by then he had fallen so low in the polls that he didn't bother.
Fifth is Richard Nixon. His second term contained Watergate. Need we say more?
Sixth, we have Nixon's vice president, Gerald Ford. Most serious historians view Ford kindly, as his pardoning of Nixon saved the nation from the unfortunate spectacle of watching a former president go on trial and possibly to jail. However, at the time, many Americans understandably wanted to see just that, and Ford was unable to win re-election.
Beating Ford in 1976 was Jimmy Carter. He also failed to be re-elected.
Eighth is conservative favorite Ronald Reagan. Economic growth, a firm foreign policy that was visibly leading to the Soviet Union's downfall and strong personal convictions helped Reagan connect with the American people in a way few other presidents have. He could easily have been elected to a third term but for Constitutional restrictions and declining health. He remains one of the most beloved American presidents, and his own vice president was elected as his successor.
Which takes us to George H.W. Bush, father of the more recent President Bush. George H.W. Bush is considered by historians to have been a solid president, but his downfall lay, among other things, in raising taxes after promising not to and presiding over a stagnant economy. He failed to secure a second term.
Tenth in our quick overview is Bill Clinton. His second term was badly marred by the Monica Lewinsky scandal. A man who could have left as one of America's most popular presidents was unable to even campaign extensively for his Vice President, Al Gore, who made bid for the presidency in 2000. Given that that election came down to a few hundred votes in Florida, it's possible the outcome would have been different had Clinton been able to campaign more openly.
Finally, we have George W. Bush. He was elected to a second term by a significant majority, but began to fall in the polls almost immediately. Like the first president on our list, Harry Truman, he left with about a 25 percent approval rating in the polls.
What's our final tally then? Out of eleven presidents, only seven (I'm including all those who ascended to the presidency through the vice presidency) received second terms. Out of the seven who did get second terms, only two, Reagan and Eisenhower, had good ones.
So is this just chance? President Obama's poll numbers are falling - can he avoid Second Term Blues?
Although chance can play a big role, a number of factors do work against presidents in their second terms.
In the modern age of 24/7 news and entertainment, people always look for the latest idea or trend. By the time presidents reach their second term, they rarely have a lot to say that people haven't already heard. In other words, even a president that campaigns on the words "hope" and "change" can seem "dull" and "boring" eight years later.
​After the first term, key staff members often desert the White House. Those highly skilled professionals who made the first term a success quickly realize that their jobs will be gone once the second term is over. So they start looking for new posts, and the president is surrounded by the B team.
Hubris, arrogance, or whatever else you choose to call it, also sets in. The president and key staff members believe that their place in history is secure. Most of them are very rich by this point, since big government salaries, government perks, paid lecture series and book deals give them access to a nearly unlimited source of income.
Setting an agenda also gets harder. All the big ideas that made a president famous during his first term have already been either enacted or rebuffed by congress. And some of those ideas, such as Obamacare, can end up doing damage to a president's reputation if, like Obamacare, their enactment turns out to be fraught with difficulties.
Finally, burnout occurs. White House jobs age both staff-persons and presidents about two years for every one that goes by. By the time the second term finishes, everyone who was involved is ready for a vacation.
In short, President Obama will have to fight hard to keep his second term from being a shell of his first. The full article can be accessed by clicking here, it will take you directly there: www.upbeatconservative.com